How can India, New Zealand and Sri Lanka qualify for the semi-finals?


South Africa beat Pakistan by 150 runs (DLS method) in the 22nd ICC match Women's World Cup 2025 at the R. Premadasa Stadium in Colombo on Tuesday, October 21. In another rain-soaked match, Pakistan won the toss and opted to bowl.

Fátima Sana's decision to field first backfired as the Proteas made 312-9 in 40 overs. Skipper Laura Wolvaardt top scored with 90 off 82 balls, while Sune Luus contributed 61 off 59 and Marizanne Kapp (68* off 43). Nadine de Klerk also hit 41 off 16 balls. Pakistan set themselves a revised DLS target of 234 in 20 overs. They remained at 83-7 com Kapp starred with 3-20.

Pakistan's defeat on Tuesday meant they have been officially eliminated from the Women's World Cup 2025. Australia, South Africa and England have already qualified for the next round. On that note, let's take a look at what India, New Zealand and Sri Lanka need to do to clinch the last semi-final spot in the ICC Women's World Cup 2025.

India (4 points, NRR +0.526)

hosts India they are currently fourth in the points table with four points and a net run rate of +0.526. They have suffered three consecutive defeats but are still very much in contention for a place in the semi-finals of the 2025 Women's World Cup.

India's next game is against New Zealand in Navi Mumbai on Thursday, October 23. If they win the match, their place in the semi-finals will be confirmed. A win will take them to six points. Even if they lose Bangladesh and the Kiwis beat England to reach six points, India will progress from more wins.

If the Women in Blue lose to New Zealand, they will need England to beat the Kiwis. India can advance to the semi-finals by beating Bangladesh in their last league match. If the India vs New Zealand match is washed out and India also lose to Bangladesh, they will need England to beat the Kiwis. In this scenario too, India can qualify for the semi-finals if Sri Lanka you don't end up with six points.

If India's remaining two matches of the 2025 Women's World Cup are called off due to rain, they can still qualify for the semi-finals if England beat New Zealand or if the England-New Zealand match is also called off. Even if India and Sri Lanka are tied at six points, India will progress due to a better net run rate.

New Zealand (4 points, NRR -0.245)

new zealand they have been very unlucky in the 2025 Women's World Cup in terms of the weather factor. They have played five matches, winning one and losing two, while the last two matches were washed out due to rain. After five games, the Kiwis have four points and a net percentage of -0.245.

New Zealand must beat India to stay in the semi-finals. Thursday's loss will end their hopes of qualification as the Ladies in Blue will clinch the final top four spots. On the other hand, if the Kiwis win their remaining two matches in the 2025 Women's World Cup, they will be confirmed for a place in the semi-finals.

Should New Zealand beat India but go down to England, then they will need Bangladesh to pull off an upset against India. In this scenario, India will be stuck on four points, while New Zealand will finish with six. Sri Lanka can also finish with six points if they win Pakistan. In this scenario, the team with the best net run rate will advance to the semi-finals of the 2025 Women's World Cup.

New Zealand can also reach the semi-finals if they defeat India and their match against England is scrapped. In this scenario, they will finish with seven points, while India will finish with six even if they beat Bangladesh.

Should the India-New Zealand match be scrapped, the Kiwis will have to beat England and then hope Bangladesh beat India. If New Zealand's remaining two games are eliminated, they can only finish in the top four if India and Sri Lanka finish the league stage with less than six points.

Sri Lanka (4 points, NRR -1.035)

Despite winning just one of their six matches, co-hosts Sri Lanka still have a slim chance of qualifying for the semi-finals of the Women's World Cup 2025. For Sri Lanka to qualify, they need to beat Pakistan by a huge margin in their last league match and also hope India lose their remaining two matches. That's not all, they will also need England to beat New Zealand.

In the above scenario, India would be stuck with four points, while Sri Lanka and New Zealand would finish with six points each. Sri Lanka can then progress to the semi-finals as long as they finish with a better net speed than New Zealand. As of now, Sri Lanka's net run rate is -1.035 while New Zealand's is -0.245.